Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 January 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jan 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 9 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jan 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
09/1936Z from Region 3538 (N20W67). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan,
12 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached an estimated peak of 423 km/s at 09/0000Z (estimated
due to DSCOVR/ACE data gaps). Total IMF reached 9 nT at 09/0135Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 09/1203Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Jan, 11 Jan, 12
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jan 176 Predicted 10 Jan-12 Jan 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 09 Jan 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jan 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jan 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jan-12 Jan 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jan to 12 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Wednesday, 9 October 2024
X1.8 solar flare, severe geomagnetic storm watch
Tuesday, 8 October 2024
Double X-flares, glancing blow possible
Latest forum messages
AR 13869 167AR 13883 97"Sorry, you have been blocked" 4New satellites - Proba-3, PUNCH, SWFO-L1, GOES-U/19 19Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1182
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M2.6 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 161.1 +7.2 |