Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 December 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Dec 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
13/1515Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec,
16 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 13/0444Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 13/0841Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
13/0656Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 110 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Dec) and quiet to
minor storm levels on days two and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Dec 135 Predicted 14 Dec-16 Dec 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 13 Dec 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 007/008-013/018-019/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec to 16 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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