Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/2208Z from Region 3607 (S18E44). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 483 km/s at 13/0049Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 13/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
13/0613Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 300 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 128 Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 13 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 009/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 010/014-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar to 16 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |