Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 March 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Mar 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0604Z from Region 3599 (S13W94). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15
Mar, 16 Mar, 17 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 542 km/s at 14/0719Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/0604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
14/0233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 237 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Mar, 17 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Mar 127 Predicted 15 Mar-17 Mar 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 14 Mar 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Mar 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 010/012-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 25% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/10/31 | X2.03 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/05 | M4.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/10/12 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| September 2024 | 141.4 -74.1 |
| November 2024 | 215.8 +74.4 |
| Last 30 days | 160.9 +7.7 |