Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 April 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Apr 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
10/1151Z from Region 3629 (N05W98). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Apr) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (12 Apr,
13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 492 km/s at 10/1219Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 10/0016Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
10/1820Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 468 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (11 Apr, 13
Apr) and quiet levels on day two (12 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 131 Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 132/140/145 90 Day Mean 10 Apr 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 007/010-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr to 13 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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