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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 May 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2024

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 22/0404Z from Region 3683 (S23W95). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 22/0319Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/1840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 22/0020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 267 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (23 May, 25 May) and unsettled to active levels on day two (24 May). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (23 May, 24 May) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
Class M60%60%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 May 196
  Predicted   23 May-25 May 194/190/188
  90 Day Mean        22 May 169

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 May  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May  008/008-011/014-012/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May to 25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm25%40%35%

All times in UTC

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