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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 19 2010 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
18/1123Z from Region 3712 (S26W12). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 619 km/s at 18/0251Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 17/2351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
180448/Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (20 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (21 Jun).
Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (19 Jun)
and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (20
Jun, 21 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 193 Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 18 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jun 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 014/015-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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