Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 June 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jun 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jun 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/0627Z from Region 3712 (S25E14). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(16 Jun, 17 Jun, 18 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 466 km/s at 15/1644Z. Total IMF
reached 15 nT at 15/1220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-14 nT at 15/1140Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (16 Jun, 18 Jun)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (17 Jun). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (16 Jun, 17
Jun, 18 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jun 171 Predicted 16 Jun-18 Jun 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 15 Jun 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jun 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jun 015/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 013/015-008/008-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jun to 18 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Thursday, 21 November 2024
Major far side eruption, S1 radiation storm
Monday, 11 November 2024
Coronal hole faces Earth
Friday, 1 November 2024
X2.0 solar flare
Latest forum messages
Filaments and prominences 517AR 13901 108Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1246Sunspot Latitudes at or near Solar Maximum 76The Rotations of AR 13780 and AR 13902 1
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/11/06 | X2.39 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/11/20 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| October 2024 | 166.4 +25 |
| November 2024 | 142.7 -23.8 |
| Last 30 days | 155.2 +4.4 |