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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
12/1328Z from Region 3743 (S09E24). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 391 km/s at 12/1529Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
12/1537Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/2224Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 160 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14
Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Jul). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Jul,
14 Jul, 15 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 210 Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 215/220/220 90 Day Mean 12 Jul 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 010/015-013/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul to 15 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 70% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2024/09/14 | X4.54 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| August 2024 | 215.5 +19 |
| September 2024 | 158.7 -56.8 |
| Last 30 days | 166.5 -55 |