Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 July 2024
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
13/1242Z from Region 3738 (S09W40). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 12/2150Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
13/1618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
13/0530Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (16
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 238 Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 235/235/235 90 Day Mean 13 Jul 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 012/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul to 16 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 70% | 45% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/09/14 | M3.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/09/13 | Kp6 (G2) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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| Last 30 days | 166.5 -55 |