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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2024 Jul 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2024IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
14/0234Z. There are currently 12 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 375 km/s at 14/0408Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
14/0438Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/1002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 132 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17
Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 234 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 230/230/230 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 005/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 30% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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