Viewing archive of Friday, 18 October 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2024 Oct 18 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Oct 2024	172	012
19 Oct 2024	175	017
20 Oct 2024	175	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was a C6.6-flare, with peak time 14:27 UTC on October 17 2024, from SIDC Sunspot Group 290 NOAA AR 3860 (beta). There are currently 8 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 285 (NOAA AR 3856) is the most complex AR (beta-gamma-delta).The solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and a chance of X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Coronal holes

The small equatorial positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole crossed the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on October 21.

Solar wind

The solar wind at the Earth is slow. The solar wind speed decreased from around 400 km/s to 370 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field around 8 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -7 nT. No enhancement of the solar wind speed and magnetic field is expected in the next 24h.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (both NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was shortly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold on OCT17 21:30 UTC, and has a small chance to exceed this level again shortly during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 126, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Oct 2024

Wolf number Catania	179
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	143 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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