Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 February 1997

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 FEB 1997

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACTIVE LEVELS OCCURRED AT SOME MID-LATITUDE SITES FROM 12-13Z, AND HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED SOME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVEL ACTIVITY FROM 0600-1400Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS BRIEFLY CROSSED THE THRESHOLD FOR HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME ON THE SECOND DAY, AND ANOTHER INTERVAL OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 FEB 072
  Predicted   17 FEB-19 FEB  072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        16 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB  010/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB  010/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%05%20%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%05%25%
Minor storm20%05%20%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%

All times in UTC

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