Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 February 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 FEB 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ACTIVE LEVELS OCCURRED AT SOME MID-LATITUDE SITES FROM 12-13Z,
AND HIGH LATITUDES EXPERIENCED SOME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVEL
ACTIVITY FROM 0600-1400Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS BRIEFLY
CROSSED THE THRESHOLD FOR HIGH FLUX LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT DAY. QUIET CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESUME ON THE SECOND DAY, AND ANOTHER INTERVAL OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 FEB 072 Predicted 17 FEB-19 FEB 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 16 FEB 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB 010/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB 010/010-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 FEB to 19 FEB
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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