Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 March 1997
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 1997 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 074 Issued at 2200Z on 15 MAR 1997IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED.
REGION 8020 (N07W27) IS A 7 SPOT 'AXX' GROUP, REGION 8021 (S31W26)
IS A 5 SPOT 'AXX' GROUP, AND REGION 8022 (S04W23) IS A 3 SPOT 'BXO'
GROUP.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 MAR 076 Predicted 16 MAR-18 MAR 075/074/074 90 Day Mean 15 MAR 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 MAR 006/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 MAR 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 MAR-18 MAR 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 MAR to 18 MAR
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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